US Empire decline

Photo: Ash Hayes on Unsplash Tending the fronts of conflict Kristin ChristmanTFF Associate February 15, 2024 On Wednesday, October 25, 2023, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated, “Our war against Hamas is a test for all of humanity. It is a fight between the Iran-Hezbollah-Hamas axis of evil and the forces of freedom and progress. . . We are the people of the light, they are the people of darkness. Light will triumph over darkness.”[1] Now where have we heard those lines before? The axis of evil, the forces of light and freedom, the forces of darkness: these prejudiced phrases are so stale they’ve grown moldy. The war in Ukraine, we’re to believe, is against dark, evil Russia. Biden’s National Security Strategy 2022 speaks of the “darker vision” of US adversaries. The Cold War was against the “Evil Empire.” In every single US war for the past two and a half centuries,...

Marjorie Cohn* January 24, 2023 The Houthis say their attacks in the Red Sea will continue until there is a ceasefire in Gaza In response to Israel’s assault on the people of Gaza in early October, Yemen’s Houthi movement, Ansar Allah, began mounting attacks on commercial ships in and around the Red Sea. The Houthis said the attacks were aimed at Israeli-connected or Israel-bound ships and they would continue until there is a ceasefire in Gaza. Meanwhile, the pressure on this vital trade route is impacting the global economy as ships are being redirected to more expensive routes. On January 11, South Africa presented its case documenting Israel’s genocide in Gaza to the International Court of Justice. The following day, the U.S. and U.K. attacked 28 sites in Yemen. Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from a ballistic missile submarine killed five Yemenis and injured six. Four days later, the U.S. fired...

Jan Oberg December 13, 2023 One of the enigmatic aspects of international politics is that big and militarily superior countries have systematically lost wars in smaller countries – the last 50 years, from Vietnam to Ukraine. ’Losing’ here means military defeat, being forced out, losing the struggle for the hearts and minds of the people, and facing fiasco when it comes to achieving the presumed noble motives like introducing human rights, democracy, freedom or liberating women. And given the tremendous human costs, particularly in the Middle East, the US’s Global War On Terror since September 11, 2001, is also an intellectual and moral disaster. The United States – the world’s by far largest military spender, interventionist, warrior, occupier, global base-builder with the most militarised foreign policy – is in a class of its own. In losing wars too. It is now rapidly losing legitimacy, relevance and credibility in the eyes...

In 2020, I wrote an impressionistic article, ”Could everyday micro malfunctions be signs of a coming macro breakdown?” It was inspired by the brilliant sociologist C. Wright Mill’s concept of the sociological imagination. Out of many more, I selected 14 examples of everyday things that I had experienced simply did not work, from lost luggage and flight delays to bank cards that prevent payment, postal services that do not bring out parcels and letters on time, and French pay road toll that prevents you from paying, etc. To quote one example from the article: ”A little story about the decay in my town: I arrive in Lund where I live, after 6 weeks travelling around entirely on my own in China. Everything has worked perfectly there – trains, flights, ticket reservations, no queues anywhere, my WeChat app, ATMs, etc – although English is still a problem for an ignorant person...

Friends do not let friends commit crimes against humanity. Jeffrey Sachs November 10, 2023 Israel is running out of time to save itself—not from Hamas, which lacks the means to defeat Israel militarily, but from itself. Israel’s war crimes in Gaza, verging on the crime of genocide according to the Center for Constitutional Rights, threaten to destroy Israel’s civil, political, economic, and cultural relations with the rest of the world. There are growing calls in Israel for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to resign immediately. A new Israeli government should seize the opportunity to turn carnage into lasting peace through diplomacy. Netanyahu is leading Israel into the same trap that the U.S. fell into after 9/11. Hamas’ goal in its heinous terrorist attack on 10/7 was to goad Israel into a long and bloody war, and to induce Israel to commit war crimes to bring on the world’s opprobrium. This is...

Gerhard Schroeder’s revelations about why negotiations broke down last spring are even more depressing than you might think. Why did the US/NATO world want the war to continue when it could have been stopped long ago? Tarik Cyril Amar* October 26, 2023 In a much-cited interview, ex-German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has stated that a compromise peace to end the war in Ukraine was well within reach when negotiators met in Istanbul last spring. This deal would have meant an end to NATO’s long march east, Ukrainian neutrality, international security guarantees, and domestic arrangements to reintegrate the separatist territories in the Donbass.   Ending the war so quickly would have made a great difference, as even a few basic figures will show. While key data remains secret and estimates are contested, it is certain that Europe’s largest conflict since World War II has led to several hundred thousand military casualties. Figures for...

Richard E. Rubenstein October 23, 2023 Everyone knows that the United States is the world’s leading military power, with an annual “defense” budget approaching one trillion dollars, considerably more than the arms budgets of the next 144 nations combined. The U.S. employs more than 3.5 million active military and civilian personnel and maintains more than 750 military bases located in some 80 nations around the world. The nation’s most profitable and fastest-growing manufacturing sector is the military-industrial complex, which employs more than 4 million workers and supplies approximately 40 percent of the total weaponry used by the world’s armed forces. In the production and deployment of nuclear weapons, of course, the U.S. is absolutely dominant. Originally published at Transcend on October 2, 2023 All this is common knowledge. Yet, in the heartland of arms production and preparation for war, there is virtually no debate about militarism. Only a handful of...

Screenshot from AlJazeera, October 20, 2023 October 20, 2023 This is a shortened version of a must-watch Mearsheimer lecture. You may enjoy his clear-eyed vision as if it was given recently. However… Professor Mearsheimer gave it at the March 24, 2017, Israel Lobby and American Policy conference. One indicator of good versus bad research is the degree to which predictions turn out to be right. Most Western researchers on international affairs whom decision-makers take inspiration from must, therefore, be incompetent, if not lousy, scholars…. Or they listen only to themselves in confrontational echo chambers populated by group thinkers. Be sure they do not listen to the likes of John Mearsheimer.

“Mops And More” © Jan Oberg 2023 Jan Oberg October 20, 2023 I assume that most readers here know me as a peace and conflict researcher and as co-founder and director of the Transnational Foundation for Peace and Future Research, TFF. However, since 2009, I’ve also worked as an art photographer, done projects, and arranged almost 30 exhibitions in my studio here in Lund, Sweden. See more on Oberg PhotoGraphics. I grew up with contemporary art; it’s always been an essential, joyful interest of mine. And in 2002-2003, I found out that I could reach people not only with texts but also with images. Back then, I went on fact-finding in Iraq and interviewed some 160 people at all levels and also took photos with an early digital low-resolution camera – of people, cafées, nature, streets, children, cultural places, museums and… life in general, nothing special. It was merely snapshots...

Palestinians search the rubble of destroyed buildings following an Israeli strike, as battles between Israel and the Hamas movement continue for the sixth consecutive day in the city of Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip on October 12, 2023.© Said Khatib/AFP via Getty Images Jan Oberg October 12, 2023 This is the text of TFF PressInfo 723 sent out earlier today. I suggest that you subscribe to our free about-weekly newsletter here. In civilisational terms, war is a backward, primitive thing; it solves no conflicts and creates no security – only hate, which fuels more war. It’s a system or structural evil – much more than a human evil.   Equally primitive and uncultured is, of course, the type of black-and-white, simplified narrative: there is only one evil party – the Palestinians and Hamas. The war has only one cause, and we need neither history nor conflict analysis to understand anything....

Deeply moving and concise statement by Yanis Varoufakis October 8, 2023 The Nobel “Peace” Committee should have rewarded Julian Assange for his long service in fighting wars – by revealing how they are master-minded and fought with no connection to official explanations and narratives. It would then also have done something for the freedom of expression and human rights – including this hero’s right to live in freedom. But the NATO Norway Committee consists – in violation of the wish of Alfred Nobel – of former parliamentarians (and not of experts in peace as he mentioned) and has, therefore, no wish or ability to reward dissidents in the West or people who devote their lives to fight also US/NATO wars – as did Daniel Ellsberg. Shame upon the Committee! And thanks from our hearts to both Julian and Yanis. Jan ObergTFF director and editor of The Transnational

Illustration: Craig Stephens The US isn’t serious about detente or any form of reconciliation. Instead it has been laying the foundation for a cold war or worse, and fabricating a moral high ground Josef Gregory Mahoney October 2, 2023 American efforts to foster detente with China have failed: it’s time to acknowledge this and move on. This argument has emerged in recent weeks in several important publications, including The Washington Post and Foreign Affairs, expressed by key opinion leaders considered close to the Biden administration and those representing more conservative positions. These views have not been endorsed officially by the administration but suggest a consensus coalescing on both sides of the American political spectrum. They seem to express the next chapter of a dark narrative arc established when Joe Biden took office. The arc points especially to the Xi-Biden meeting on the sidelines of last year’s G20 summit and the...