Farhang Jahanpour, TFF Associate

June 23, 2026

Berkshire (Special to Informed Comment; Feature) – The MoU agreed by Iran and the United States has stunned the world. Oil prices have dropped from a high of $120 at the beginning of the Israeli-US war against Iran to $77 per barrel, slightly above their level before the war. Stock markets have reached new heights, and the possibility of a global recession or even an economic meltdown has been averted, though choppy waters remain ahead.

It is still too early to assess the full implications of what is, without doubt, a major Iranian win and a humiliating US and Israeli defeat. Its ramifications will not only affect the US’s standing and relations in the Middle East, but may well affect its global power and its rivalry with Russia and China. It has totally transformed the public view of the GCC countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE) as islands of stability and prosperity in a turbulent region, but as vulnerable small states at the mercy of bigger neighbours.

It has enhanced Iran’s position as the only state in the Middle East which has stood up not only to Israel, but also to the greatest superpower in the world and has emerged undefeated, although sustaining great losses. It has opened a major rift between Israel and its greatest patron, the United States, has diminished the power of the Israeli lobby and has greatly weakened public opinion of Israel in the United States and in the world as a whole.

With its criminal genocide in Gaza, massacres and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank and Lebanon and its attacks on most of its neighbours, implicating the United States in those crimes and pushing America to two unpopular and illegal wars of aggression against Iran, Netanyahu’s Israel has done great disservice to the United States and its global reputation. The prime minister has made Israel totally dependent on American power and has revealed its vulnerability, turning the world against the Zionist state.

Practically the entire world has breathed a sigh of relief at the end of the US-Iran war and has backed the deal, which was revealed for full effect by President Trump at the G7 summit in France. However, the Israeli government and its powerful lobby in the United States are up in arms and trying to sabotage the deal by any means possible.

It should be pointed out that both wars of aggression against Iran last June and on 28 February 2026 were launched at Israeli instigation. Immediately after the start of the June war, Secretary of State Marco Rubio dissociated the United States from the war, saying that it was launched by Israel without US involvement, although President Trump later joined the war and bombed the Iranian nuclear sites.

After the start of the second war, again Marco Rubio said that Israel had informed the United States that it was going to attack Iran, and knowing that Iran would attack US forces in return, the United States decided to pre-emptively bomb Iran. So, the main responsibility for both wars rests squarely on Netanyahu’s shoulders. It is now clear why Israel is so unhappy about the miserable failure of the two wars that it pushed the United States to join against Iran.

To appreciate the importance of what has happened, we must look back to the start of the recent conflict. After the landmark nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA) reached between Iran and the Obama Administration in 2015, Netanyahu and his cronies in the United States went wild. In an unprecedented move, Netanyahu addressed an AIPAC-dominated Congress, called the deal the worst deal ever and vowed to crush it. With President Trump’s election, Netanyahu found his opportunity and persuaded Trump to withdraw from the deal in 2018 and to reimpose crippling sanctions on Iran. During President Trunps’s second term, Netanyahu even went further to achieve what he called his 40-year dream and involve the United States in a war with Iran.

According to The New York Times, Netanyahu and the head of MOSSAD persuaded President Trump that by decapitating the Iranian leadership, the Iranian people would rise up and the Iranian government would collapse like a house of cards within a few days, and America could repeat its venture in Venezuela. (1)

President Trump called on the Iranian people to rise up and topple the regime, assuring them that the United States was behind them. He boasted that he would appoint the next Iranian Supreme Leader. He even threatened to obliterate Iranian civilisation, which would never return, to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age, and demanded unconditional surrender. The MoU has, in fact, represented the US’s unconditional surrender to Iranian demands. It represents all the 14 points that Iran put forward as a basis of negotiations, which, allegedly, President Trump tore up and threw in the dustbin. Here is the text of the MoU signed by President Masoud Pezeshkian and US President Donald Trump separately on Wednesday. 

1- The US and Iran, and their allies in the current war, “declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.”  

The Inclusion of Lebanon in the agreement, ensuring its territorial integrity and sovereignty, is very significant and positions Iran as the main supporter of Lebanon in the Middle East, and practically wins US support for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon

2- “The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.”

This is the first time since the victory of the Islamic Revolution that the United States has so clearly recognised Iran’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and has pledged not to interfere in its internal affairs.

3- “The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America commit to negotiating and achieving the final Deal, in maximum 60 days extendable with mutual consent.”

4- “Immediately upon the signing of this MoU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days…”

5- “Upon the signing of this MoU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels, with no charge for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa…”

This clause recognises Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz. Although Iran agrees not to charge a toll for the ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz for the next 60 days only, there is nothing preventing it from imposing charges for providing services for the ships. After all, technically, the Strait of Hormuz is not an international waterway connecting two open seas or oceans together. It is a passage only to the Persian Gulf, whose entire northern coastline of approximately 1,800 to 2,444 kilometres (1,120 to 1,516 Miles) belongs to Iran.

6- “The United States of America undertakes, with regional partners, to develop a definitive mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 Billion, for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran…”

Ironically, this hefty sum, the entire amount that Iran demanded, is not paid by Israel and the United States, who started the war, but by the GCC countries, who opposed the war, pleaded with Trump not to start it and who suffered great losses as a result of the war.

7- “The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal…”

This actually goes even further than the commitments made in the JCPOA by the Obama administration.

8- “The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon, in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph 7, with the minimum methodology to be down blending on-site, under the supervision of the IAEA. The two Parties also agree to discuss the issue of enrichment, and other mutually agreed matters relating to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final Deal. The final Deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph…”

After attempting and failing to grab the 400kg of Iran’s 60% enriched uranium, this is a major climbdown to agree with Iran to dilute or get rid of the material under IAEA supervision, rather than allowing the United States to forcefully remove it.

9- “Pending the final Deal, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America agree to maintain the status quo; the Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions, and will not deploy any additional forces in the region.”

This is another major concession to Iran to maintain the current status quo, even though the war was allegedly waged to put an end to Iran’s nuclear programme.

10- “The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MoU, and until the termination of sanctions, the U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.”

11- The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MoU and the future compliance of the final Deal.

12- After signing this MoU, and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this MoU and the continuing implementation of these measures, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America will start negotiations regarding the final Deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.

13- The final Deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.

This paragraph is also very important as the deal will not remain merely as an MoU between the two countries, but will be turned into a firm legal treaty by being “endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.”

All in all, it means that Iran has achieved all its demands, while Israel and the United States did not achieve any of their stated aims. Of course, a lot can go wrong between now and the end of the 60 days, mainly by Israel trying to sabotage the deal, especially with its continued aggression in Lebanon.

Many opponents of the Iranian government maintain that while the Iranian regime has achieved a great deal as a result of this MoU, the Iranian people have gained nothing. I don’t necessarily think that is the case. If the regime does not moderate its policies and ease its restrictions, the struggles of Iranians for a better future will continue. However, the way they go about achieving their rights may change. The opposition will be in the form of mass action and peaceful protest, rather than resorting to force or relying upon foreign help, which has proved to be illusory. The killing of a large number of civilians and the destruction of a vast section of industry and infrastructure have proved to many Iranians that their salvation comes from within, rather than from violent action from outside.

Since the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has functioned mainly in the form of collective leadership centred on the Supreme National Security Council, dominated by the elected president and the Majles Speaker, with minimum interference by the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. The late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was strongly opposed to his son succeeding him in that office, rejecting the logic of family succession. If and when the new Supreme Leader emerges from hiding, he should at most exert spiritual and moral guidance and allow the elected officials to carry out their duties through consultation in the SNSC. This major change will be more democratic, will create greater national unity, will calm the feelings of the opponents of the clerical regime and will put the country on the path of greater freedoms and national unity. I hope the Iranian authorities will seriously consider this option.

(1) The New York Times, Israel Thought It Could Spare Rebellion Inside Iran”, 22 Mar 2026.

Postscript
June 22, 2026

The talks have survived despite serious challenges

Since the text of the MoU was published, the talks that were started in Lucerne, Switzerland between the Iranian delegation, led by Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Araqchi and, on the American side, by Vice-President JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, with Pakistani and Qatari mediation, have experienced a bumpy ride and were nearly broken off, but good sense prevailed and they have continued and seem to have made considerable progress. Iran’s top negotiators have departed Switzerland after what they have called “encouraging” progress in the talks.

As anticipated, Israeli leaders did their best to undermine and even block the agreement. Israel, which started the two wars against Iran and dragged the United States into them, was not even consulted in the preparation of the MoU, but was just sent a copy of it after it was agreed between the United States and Iran. Almost immediately, Netanyahu announced that Israel would occupy Lebanon “indefinitely”. Israeli forces killed at least 47 people in Lebanon on Saturday and at least a further eight on Sunday. According to BBC Verify, during one attack in South Lebanon in recent weeks, Israeli forces killed at least 361, mainly civilians.

Their excuse was that Hezbollah forces had attacked Israeli troops first, forgetting that Israeli forces are operating inside Lebanon illegally, and according to Israeli officials, have expressed their wish to occupy and annex Southern Lebanon, up to the Litani River and even beyond. They carried out the plan to occupy Lebanon even before Hezbollah existed. In fact, Hezbollah was created in the wake of Israel’s savage attacks on Lebanon by Ariel Sharon in 1982, killing at least 17,000 innocent Lebanese and Palestinians and ending with the massacre of Palestinian refugees in Sabra and Chatilla camps.

Since the US brokered a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel on 2nd March, Israeli forces have killed at least 4,000 people in Lebanon, devastated a large part of the country, including in Beirut, and displaced over one million people. As usual, their interpretation of the ceasefire has been “you cease, we fire.”

Professor Norman Finkelstein, a leading scholar of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, has described the current Israeli government as a “zombie

killing machine.” Given the behaviour of the Israeli government since the start of the genocide in Gaza, this is a correct definition. This is the behaviour of a murderous, rogue regime which is totally out of control and determined to prevent an agreement between the United States and Iran.

Ehud Olmert, a former Israeli PM has also accused Benjamin Netanyahu of leading a “criminal gang” which “has set a precedent without equal in Israel’s history.” And that “short of extermination, government policy carried out indiscriminate killing of civilians and denied them food and medicine…This was done with vicious and malicious intent. Israel is committing war crimes. It is time to halt.” Ehud Olmert concluded, “Enough is enough!”

This is why Iran insisted that the issue of Lebanon should be the first topic discussed in the MoU, emphasising Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. This was not meant only as a way to protect Lebanon, but as a test of the US’s reliability. After all, Trump crashed out of a landmark agreement which Iran had signed with the Obama administration and with the UN Security Council, and has attacked Iran twice with Israel in the middle of negotiations, causing enormous damage to Iran. During the second war, American and Israeli military strikes on Iran are estimated to have killed more than 4,000 Iranians, including its leader and a large number of civilian and military officials, destroyed and damaged more than 120,000 residential and commercial units and caused the country losses amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars. So, it is quite obvious that Iranians do not trust the current US government and want to have tangible evidence that it will live up to its latest promises.

Trump’s recent behaviour has again shown his erratic behaviour and has left a lot to be desired. On 21st June, when his vice-president, his golfing partner and his son-in-law were busy negotiating with Iranians in Lucerne about one of the most consequential and important agreements, not only for the United States but for the whole world, Trump again showed his amazing diplomatic skills and nearly wrecked the talks.

Writing in his Truth Social, he stated:

“The only Thing I love more than negotiating with Iran is BOMBING THE SHIT out of Iran. Our negotiations are going beautifully, but if they don’t go much better immediately, I will ANNIHILATE THE IRANIAN REGIMEfrom the Face of the Earth. Your Favorite President’s bombs are Much Bigger than Iran’s Highly Enriched Tahdig. I ain’t playing, son.
-NOT JDT”

This is not the language of a responsible president whose words the world can trust. After this amazing outburst, the Iranian delegation threatened to leave the talks, but good sense prevailed and the talks continued.

It should be remembered that Trump’s agreement to a ceasefire with Iran was not an act of charity, but a desperate measure out of necessity. His military commanders had told him that there was no military solution to the conflict with Iran, and that the continuation of the war would further devastate the Middle East and lead to an economic meltdown. The American strategic petroleum reserves are at their lowest level since 1983, and the United States has enough petroleum to last for another four to six weeks. Some other countries of the world are in an even worse shape. If the Strait of Hormuz is not opened immediately and oil shipments are not resumed, the entire global economy could face an acute crisis resulting in global depression. This is why it is important that, despite the initial bumps, the talks continue and achieve solid results.

The MoU has opened a major rift between US and Israeli officials over Israel’s attempts to sabotage the deal. In an unprecedented rebuke to Netanyahu, Vice-President Vance referenced the billions in defence aid Israel receives from the US, pointing out that a large part of the military equipment that Israel uses is made by American hands and paid for by US taxpayers. He reminded Netanyahu that Trump was Israel’s only ally left in the world: “My message to them would be twofold. No 1: Donald J Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time.” He continued: “The problem for Israel is not Donald J Trump, and anybody in Israel who thinks their biggest problem is the president of the United States needs to wake up and smell the reality of the situation that country is in.”

The situation in the world is so serious that Netanyahu should not be allowed to push the world over a cliff. America should put American interests first, and the Israelis should be told that enough is enough.

Farhang Jahanpour
A British national of Iranian origin, is a former professor and dean of the Faculty of Languages at the University of Isfahan and a former Editor for Middle East and North Africa at the BBC Monitoring. Follow him on “X” at @FJShirazi. Dr Jahanpour is also a former TFF Board member and Associate for decades.

  Iran-US negotiations, The Iran-US memorandum of June 2026