TFF Blog

Amnesty International reported this week that an Iranian lawyer, Nasrin Sotoudeh, has been sentenced to 38 years in jail and 148 lashes. She has dedicated her life to defending women accused of removing their hijabs in public. The persecution of human rights dissidents in Iran appears to be getting worse. It makes it harder to feel sorry for Iran, even if President Donald Trump is wielding the heavy stick against it, and even though Trump has sabotaged the Agreement to freeze Iran’s nuclear research and uranium enrichment carefully negotiated by President Barack Obama’s team, the EU, Russia and China. However, Realpolitik demands us to stand up for this Agreement but who can be happy stepping into the ring to defend the honour of such a regime? Iran executes more people each year than any other country bar China. If Iran wants more enthusiastic outside help it must put its own...

Trump’s statement amounts to a de facto declaration of war on Iran. Objectively speaking, it is a lie that Iran threatens the US. It is a lie that the US sends aircraft carriers to the region in self-defence. It’s lies as blatant as the one about Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction. You may think that this is just psychological warfare and positioning. It is not. Because: Over time, this type of statements develop its own dynamics and the US will not be able to back down from what it threatens to do without loosing face. President Trump’s statement is a blatant violation of international law, the UN Charter’s Article 2.4 which states:“All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.” In...

Maybe, after all, there is an argument for saying that the world needs more violence not less if we are to make its societies more equal. This is one conclusion one can derive from Walter Scheidel’s new book, The Great Leveler. He starts from what we all know by now: the richest 62 persons in the world own as much net wealth as the poorer half of humanity. This is the number that could fit inside a London double-decker bus. This inequality appears to get worse by the year, although if we go back to 1929 it was then about the same. Two thousand years ago in Roman times the richest had fortunes about 1.5 million times that of the average citizen, roughly the same ratio as Bill Gates and the average American. Plato, writing in the fourth century BC, was vexed by the fact “there were not one but...

They hadn’t realized they were living in a world, as Barack Obama once said, is the best time to be alive in human history. Yet the bits and pieces of this information had been around for a long time and I’ve drawn on them in many of my columns. But the fact is that human beings have what Oxford Professor Dominic Johnson and Dominic Tierney call a “negativity bias”- “A subconscious predisposition that humans exhibit whether or not they are aware of it”. Their thesis explains a lot, especially in international relations- threat inflation, the outbreak and persistence of war, the neglect of opportunities for cooperation, and the prominence of failure in institutional memory and learning. In modern times the worst example of this was the threat inflation launched by President George W. Bush in tandem with Prime Minister Tony Blair on the danger posed by Iraq’s Saddam Hussein. They...

There is much diversity.  Let us praise that mega aspect of our world as multipolar, passive but peaceful, coexistence of civilizations: Anglo-American; Latin American-Caribbean; Islamic; African pre-, post-colonial; European from Ireland to Russia Far East; West Asian Islamic; with Israel Jewish; Iran Persian; South Asian, SAARC, Hindu and Islamic with India; Southeast Asian, ASEAN, Buddhist, Christian, multi-cultural; Northeast Asian daoist-shinto with China and Japan; Asian-Pacific, multi-cultural, with Maoris, Aborigines, Polynesians, Micronesians, Melanesians from one rim to the other. 14 civilizations.  Others stop counting at 8, 10.  Around that. What a wonderful, diverse, polyphonic world!  Not monophonic US or European all over, as they both have wanted and maybe still want. It should be celebrated as part of a formula for endurance and duration. The other side of this is symbiosis.  Man-woman diversity is fine; the other part is man-woman symbiosis – that is probably celebrated in half of world literature?...

Traditionally old men have sent young men to fight the wars they have started. Today it may be somewhat different. Old men may be shying away from war while young men are still beholden to it. The world, as never before, is becoming demographically lopsided, with older people concentrated in rich countries and the young in not-so-rich countries. These older societies are becoming less warlike, as the influence of the experienced and the wise filters down into the body politic. There are a number of well-regarded studies that show how so-called “youth bulges” contribute to violence and conflict within states. Countries that have a high ratio of people aged 15-24 among the adult population have an increased likelihood of domestic terrorism and civil war. A new study takes this further. In the latest issue of Harvard’s “International Security”, a group of academics examine whether “youth bulges” alter the probability of...

Remissvar om Lars-Erik Lundins utredning avgivet av Fredsrörelsen på Orust 24:e april 2019 Inledning Under läsningen av utredningens 215 sidor framtonar några grundläggande drag i den världsbild och den begreppsapparat som utredaren utgår ifrån och använder. Ingen öppen redovisning eller definition görs av dessa grundläggande drag i utredningen och dess slutsatser. Här följer ett representativt urval av begrepp som de kan förstås i utredningen. (Video med Lars-Erik Lundins presentation av utredningen). Säkerhet ett ord för trygghet i världen och frånvaro av osäkerhet för Sverige. (sid 69) Säkerhetspolitik utgörs av militära rustningar och samarbete med militäralliansen Nato och dess kärnvapenparaply (sid 24) Samarbete innebär verksamhet, avtal och militär utveckling tillsammans med Nato. (sid 69 och 153 Exempel: ”Rysslands ökade aggressivitet understryker vikten av samarbete”.) Försvar utgörs av militär styrka (överallt där ordet används) Avskräckning är målet för säkerhets- och försvarspolitik riktad mot Ryssland. Trovärdigt hot om användning av kärnvapen ingår. (sid...

Let’s make America great again! Or as the prime minister of France said: Let’s make France great again. Or, as President Donald Trump conceded, let every nation in the world announce that they are going to be great again. But what makes for greatness? Over that there is a big dispute. Strategists say that power has to be measured carefully because “the balance of power is the motor of world politics, playing a role as central as the role of energy in physics and money in economics”, as writes Professor Michael Beckley of Tufts University, in his analysis The Power of Nations. Measuring what really matters. “Power is like love, it is easier to define than measure. Just as one cannot say, ‘I love you 3.6 times more than her,’ scholars cannot calculate the balance of power precisely, because power is largely unobservable and context-dependent”. So what can scholars do? ...

Conversation with Manmohan Singh was always fascinating at the time he was prime minister of India. It was difficult to challenge his superior intellect. He could, in his calm, disciplined way, out-argue anyone. He saw where India was going with a degree of exactness that dwarfed other observers. On the economic front it was, for his Congress Party government, all about ending poverty which he thought doable, although achieving a fairer income distribution was much more difficult. On the political front it was all about catching up with China which three decades ago had been on the same level as India but was now way ahead. And it was about making peace with its nuclear-armed adversary, Pakistan. In the election, which India is now in the middle of, the issues remain the same, except that the incumbent right wing prime minister, Narendra Modi adds his own twist and interpretations. He...

I suppose it is of interest that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have found something to agree about – the criminal indictment of Julian Assange.  Trump is acutely vulnerable to the exposure of truth and Clinton blames her electoral defeat in 2016 partly on what WikiLeaks disclosed about her improper use of a government computer to send private emails. Such are the perverse ways of the deeply unjust. The liberal media is not happy with this indictment, although it also wants to distance itself from justifications for Assange’s claims of journalistic privilege, viewing him as a lone wolf with rogue traits. There are solemn assessments evaluating the narrowly framed government indictment charging cyber-crime, that is, publishing illicitly obtained classified documents from a digital source, apparently an apolitical everyday occurrence for government employees. What is apparently at legal issue is deciding whether or not Assange should be protected by reference to...

You have certainly not heard much about this in the West. And it didn’t get a fraction of the media attention (and none of the hundreds of millions of Euro pledges by the perversely rich) that the Notre Dame fire did. However, if disastrous floods had hit 28 out of 31 provinces and affected 10 million people in some European country or in the US, I believe you would have heard about it from Day One. But now it is Iran. Only the Iranians. The situation is disastrous but not so much because thousands have died. Rather, because floods of this magnitude are likely to have terrible long-term consequences for agricultural and other production, infrastructure, energy production, transport and daily lives (see pictures below and on the links). The basic facts about 3 weeks into the disaster are: 28 of 31 provinces affected, the area around Shiraz the most. 78...

Nobel Laureate and TFF Associate Mairead Maguire requests UK Home Office permission to visit her friend Julian Assange whom this year she has nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize ‘I want to visit Julian to see he is receiving medical care and to let him know that there are many people around the world who admire him and are grateful for his courage in trying to stop the wars and end the suffering of others’ Thursday 11th April, will go down in history as a dark day for the Rights of humanity, when Julian Assange, a brave and good man, was arrested, by British Metropolitan Police, forcibly removed without prior warning, in a style befitting of a war criminal, from the Ecuadorian Embassy, and bundled into a police van. It is a sad time when the UK Government at the behest of the United States Government, arrested Julian Assange, a...