PressInfo #70 – NATO-ov rat, etnicko ciscenje – Postoji li uopste izlaz iz ovoga?

johangaltung

Napisao Dzon Galtung dr hc mult, profesor na mirovnim studijama, direktor TRANSCEND-a, Mreze za mir i razvoj, pridruzeni clan TFF-a.

“Moj stav je – vrlo prosto – da se protivim bombardovanju NATO-a, a protivim se i etnickom ciscenju svejedno da li ga provode Srbi ili neko drugi – recimo useljenici u Severnu Ameriku koji su izmedju 1600 i 1900 ocistili oko 10.000.000 americkih Indijanaca. Ne mislim da moj stav izrazava bilo sta sto bi bilo stvarno novo ili jako originalno. Jedini originalan stav bio bi kad bi neko podrzavao i jedno i drugo, stav koji bi verovatno zadovoljio samo trgovce oruzjem. Veliki je broj onih koji nas uce kako je jedini dopusteni izbor onaj izmedju Milosevica i NATO-a; ako niste za jedno onda ste sigurno za ono drugo. Pa to je glupost! Jos pocetkom ove decenije, isti ovi ljudi su pokusali da nas ubede kako je jedini izbor koji nam preostaje onaj izmedju Zalivskog rata i Sadama Huseina. Jos jedan primer gde je bilo savrseno moguce da se bude i protiv jednog i protiv drugog. A onda tu je i drugi primer ovog uzasnog dualizma, strah od pogresno odabranog puta ili, sto bi mi akademici rekli -dihotomija – kad vise ne postoji nikakva alternativa, pa ako ne prihvatate NATO-ovo bombardovanje onda ste su-odgovorni za etnicko ciscenje Kosova. Cista glupost!

Alternativa je postojala i to veoma dobra alternativa: povecanje broja promatraca OEBS-a na Kosovu u Verifikacionoj misiji (KVM) sa 1200 na recimo 6.000 ili 12.000. Motorole i dogledi, boravak po selima, dolazak dobrovoljaca. Sve ovo vreme, od februara 98. tu je besneo i gradjanski rat, a jedan americki ambasador je uradio isto ono sto je Amerika uradila i u Zalivskom ratu: on je (Gelbard) saopstio Beogradu kako Amerika OVK smatra teroristima – sto se jasno poklopilo s misljenjem Beograda. I tu je postojala alternativa – granica Kosova s Albanijom je mogla biti blokirana prosirivanjem UN-ovog mandata sa Kosovsko-Makedonske granice, moglo se ojacati OEBS, a onda mogla se sazvati i Konferencija za jugo-istocnu Evropu.

No nista od toga se nije dogodilo; svi mi vec znamo da je odluka o ratu pala jos prosle jeseni – vreme izmedju trosilo se na pripremanje javnosti putem medija i na suocavanje Milosevica s ultimatumom koji on nikako nije mogao da prihvati. Opsena u Rambujeu posluzila je za tu svrhu. Shvativsi da mediji ne objavljuju ni tekst sporazuma a ni komentare, pametni ljudi su poceli da bivaju sumnjicavi. Da bi njegov tekst iskopali s nekog mracnog i zabacenog mesta na Internetu trebalo je uloziti dosta truda. Zamolio sam novinare da se svaki od njih raspita u svojoj drzavi, od ovih 19 demokratskih, da li su njihovi parlamentarci procitali tekst ovog sporazuma. Moji u Norveskoj ( nisu! Sustinu demokratije cini postojanje informisane participacije pojedinaca. Ali Srbi jesu procitali sporazum i njima je bio sasvim jasan: gubitak suvereniteta i teritorijalnog integriteta, neograniceni pristup NATO-u sirom Srbije. Nijedna drzava ne bi sebe potpisom dovela u stanje okupacije i komadanja. I Kosovarima je bilo jasno: to nije nezavisnost koju su hteli, to je vise licilo na protektorat NATO-a. Zato su i oni odbili da daju svoj glas “za”. Ipak, njih su uspeli da privole da daju svoj pristanak jer im je objasnjeno kako ce njihov odgovor – kombinacija i “da” i “ne” – omoguciti da se bombe sruce na Srbe. To se i dogodilo 24. marta, a to je onda kod Srba izazvalo vise ogorcenja prema Kosovarima nego ikada pre. Njihovo jos sveze secanje na to kako su ih Hrvati uz americku i nemacku pomoc odonud proterali samo je dodatno pomoglo.

I pre nego sto je bombardovanje pocelo svako dovoljno pametan mogao je da predpostavi kako ce Kosovari poceti da beze. Tvrditi suprotno moze jedino neko ko zivot provodi u nekom izolovanom muskom klubu, u nekoj stabnoj komandnoj sobi iz koje jos ima mogucnost da medije (bicem) natera na poslusnost i da spreci da se uopste cuje i jedan glas protiv. No, za razliku od prethodnog slucaja u Zalivskom ratu, danas svako moze da pronadje i procita na Internetu tekstove nekih od najsjajnijih umova naseg vremena kojima se uspostavlja ravnoteza s lobotomiziranim medijima u kojima je vazne informacije – kao na pr. onu koja iznosi sustinu Rambujea – bilo moguce procitati tek sa dva meseca zakasnjenja! To je, nazalost, malo prekasno za demokratiju, ali taman kad treba za totalitizam (Zinovjev).

Da li je NATO-ovo bombardovanje izazvalo etnicko ciscenja Albanaca s Kosova, sto je na raniji broj dodalo skoro milion novih izbeglica, ili bi ga Srbi svejedno obavili? I opet je nas odgovor da alternativa NATO-ovom bombardovanju nije bila ne uraditi nista, kako to sada pokusavaju da predstave. Medju srpskim snagama postoje fasisticke jedinice, cetnici, Arkanovi Tigrovi, eseljevi Orlovi – izgleda bezmalo neverovato da ni mediji a ni Haski sud njima nisu ranije posvetili vise paznje. A zasto nisu? – Zato sto je Milosevic simbol srpske nacije i drzave Jugoslavije, on je bio taj na koga su ciljali a ne glavni tehnicki izvodjaci ciscenja. Ali ostavimo i to postrani; to je samo jos jedan slucaj pogresne dihotomije ( pogresno odabranog puta.

Jasno je da su i srpska etnicka ciscenja sprovedena u Hrvatskoj i Bosni izmedju ostalog stimulisala NATO-ovo bombardovanje i – bez obzira na slozene uslove pod kojim su izvedena i bez obzira na cinjenicu da su i drugi narodi na tom prostoru radili to isto i u istom vremenskom rasponu. To su cinjenice koje su Zapadu, koji sebe voli da naziva “medjunarodna zajednica”, dale za pravo da bude frustiran, da postane agresivan i da kaze “nikad vise”.

I jasno, NATO-ovo bombardovanje je dovelo do etnickog ciscenja na nacin kako je gore objasnjeno: pokusajte samo da zamislite post-Rambujeovsku mrznju i kako je ta situacija izgledala u poredjenju s avgustom 95. Po treci put su politickim manevrom Srbi dovedeni u polozaj da u svojoj sopstvenoj zemlji postanu manjina izlozena mrznji drevnih neprijatelja, a bez zastite Savezne drzave koja je bila temelj Titove Jugoslavije: u Hrvatskoj, u Bosni i na Kosovu. Tri puta je njihov odgovor bio uveliko preteran – sto se ne nikako ne moze oprostiti ali se ipak moze razumeti.

Etnicko ciscenje je izazvalo NATO-ovo bombardovanje, NATO-ovo bombardovanje je dovelo do pojacanog etnickog ciscenja, sve u zacaranom krugu uzroka i posledica. Smrt, ubistva, razaranje, mrznja, trauma; NATO stavlja Srbe na muke, Srbi stavljaju Kosovare na muke, a jos malo pa ce i Kosovari doci na red da i oni nekoga stave na muke.

Kako bi se uopste mogli izvuci iz svega ovoga? Evo nekoliko ideja:

Mir, kad bi ga samo hteli, bio bi na dohvat ruke; samo poslusajte savet koji je Generalni sekretar UN-a, Peres de Kueljar jos decembra 1991.dao Genseru: “Prvo se uverite da ce bilo kakvo priznanje nezavisnosti biti prihvatljivo za manjine, da ce se sa delovima Jugoslavije postupati simetricno i da ce za celu Jugoslaviju vaziti isti principi”. No, da najpre dotaknemo osnovnu pretpostavku (jasno, uz prekid vatre) bez koje se o miru ni ne moze razgovarati:

[0] Jednako priznanje za svacije patnje i jednako pravo za sve: Svi su tu zrtve (neki manje neki vise nevini od drugih) u situaciji koja bi i svakom drugom narodu izgledala jednako nesavladiva. Svima njima trebaju sazaljenje i pomoc – a ne puske i bombe. Ako ih podelimo na zrtve koje “zasluzuju sto ih je snaslo” i zrtve koje to “ne zasluzuju” nasim sazaljenjem nece biti moguce da se postigne mir. Svi imaju jednaka prava na samoodredjenje i da budu priznati.

[1] Radimo po principu simetrije izmedju Hrvatske i Bosne od 1995. i Srbije 1999. 650.000 izbeglih Srba koji se i danas nalaze u Srbiji deo su onih koje su avgusta 95. iz Slavonije isterali Hrvati i SAD. Reakcija sveta na (ne)dela Srba ukljucivala je i potpunu osudu od medjunarodne zajednice pa bi i danas mogli “da uradimo istu stvar”. Zapadni mediji su dosada njihovom stradanju posvetili malo ili nimalo paznje. Stoga je neophodno da se i njihova patnja prizna i prepozna kao izvorni problem – svima treba da se obezbedi siguran povratak. A onda, unapredimo status Krajine-Slavonije u Hrvatskoj i Kosova u Srbiji , mozda cak i do ranga republike.

[2] Evo primera moguceg cetvorostranog dogovora: A (Hrvati) omogucavaju povratak B (Srba), B omogucavaju povratak-status C (Kosovarima), C omogucavaju nesmetan pristup rudnim resursima/lukama za D (muslimane slovenskog porekla), a D omogucavaju ukljucivanje hrvatskog dela Bosne i Hercegovine u A.

[3] Jugoslovenska konfederacija: Ukoliko su odredjeni stupanj autonomije odobri svim manjinama u Jugoslaviji nastali rezultat ce biti sastavljen od 15 sitnih delova. “Jedinstvo” – unitarna ili savezna drzava vise nije moguca, ali “bratstvo” – konfederacija drzava koje sve postuju ljudska prava nije nemoguca.

Toliko o rezultatima koje bi mogao da donese mir. No, da bi se to i dogodilo morao bi prvo da se desi mirovni proces. Evo nekoliko elemenata i za mirovni proces:

[4] Prestanak ubijanja na svim stranama, NATO, Srbija, OVK snage, svi moraju da se povuku, NATO sa Balkana, Srbi i Kosovari sa Kosova, situaciju preuzimaju UN i posmatraci OEBS-a u dovoljno velikom broju i u sastavu koji ce biti prihvatljiv svim stranama.

[5] Generalni sekretar UN-a uspostavlja Odbor za posredovanje u ciji bi sastav usli posrednici vec poznati po svojoj mudrosti i nezavisnosti, ljudi kao Dzimi Karter, Perez de Kueljar, Mihail Gorbacov, Nelson Mendela, Dzulius Njerere, Meri Robinson, Rikard fon Vajceker, za vodjenje dijaloga oci-u-oci sa svakom stranom kako bi otkrili i definisali prihvatljiva i odrziva resenja.

[6] Generalni sekretar UN-a saziva Konferenciju o bezbednosti i saradnji u jugo-istocnoj Evropi (CSCSEE) na kojoj kao clanice ucestvuju svi delovi bivse Jugoslavije i sve zemlje jugo-istocne Evrope sa tackama od [1] do [3] kao tackama dnevnog reda, a to posle izvestaja tima iz tacke [5].

[7] Predsednici Slovenije i Makedonije sazivaju Konferenciju o civilnom drustvu, obilato koristeci stecena znanja iz svih delova (bivse) Jugoslavije, sa ciljem da sagledaju buducnost odnosa unutar bivse Jugoslavije i da to isto urade i za odnose u celoj Jugoistocnoj Evropi (uz na pr. saradnju Madjarske i Grcke).

[8] Narodi Jugoslavije pozivaju se da uzmu aktivno ucesce u mirovnom procesu, kroz obrazovanje visenacionalnih grupa za dijalog po svim pitanjima, od kojih bi potekle konkretne ideje stvorene i zasnovane na lokalnim razgovorima.

[9] Obnova se sistematski koristi kao sredstvo za pomirenje (rekoncilijaciju) time sto se zaracenje strane navode na saradnju, na izvodjenje razlicitih zadataka ruku pod ruku, ne dozvoljavajuci da ovaj ogromni poduhvat pod svoje uzmu strani preduzimaci.

[10] U slucaju da na kraju ipak bude neophodno da se neka od granica ponovo iscrtava ili prepravlja, na to treba primeniti principe koriscene kod Dansko-Nemacke deobe pokrajine lezvig-Holstajn iz 1920. godine.

Medjutim, medjutim … Poceo sam time sto sam naveo kako se protivim i NATO-ovom bombardovanju i etnickom ciscenju. Pri tom, kao i mnogi drugi svugde na svetu i ja puno toga uzimam zdravo za gotovo, verovatno tako ne rade i ratoborni u Zapadnoj Evropi ispunjeni samozadovoljstvom zbog svog uverenja kako bas oni najbolje znaju kako treba upravljati bilo kojim tudjim drustvom. Kad su pre devetsto godina isti takvi ljudi pokrenuli Krstaski rat, sebi su uzeli za pravo da samo njihova predstava Boga i Isusa Hrista ima vrednost, niposto ne ona jevrejska, pravoslavna ili nedaj-boze muslimanska. Pobili su sve do kojih su uopste mogli doci, i to u broju koji je bio ogranicen iskljucivo pretezno manufakturnim nivoom njihove tadasnje tehnologije ubijanja.

Kao sto sam to ranije vec naglasio, osecam kako se problemi koje Jugoslavija ima mogu resiti, s nesto vise dobre volje, vise kreativnosti, nesto vremena i manje dualizma, s manje demonizovanja. Milosevic je jako, jako daleko od novog Hitlera. On nema na umu nikakav novi koncept “svetskog poretka” koji bi ostalima naturao s visine. On je u sustini samo upravljac, administrator veoma nesretnih crta srpske psihe i prirode – megalomanije i paranoje velikih skoro kao one kod SAD-a, otprilike istih onolikih kakve danas prevladavaju i u Sadamovom Iraku. Kao dodatak, kod njega postoje i neke crte tipicne za sefa mafije, no u danasnjem globalizovanom svetu pokazite mi toga kod koga ih necemo naci?

Onaj drugi problem, NATO-ovo bombardovanje nesto je tezi. No, bombasi postavljaju jedno pravo pitanje na koje, na zalost, daju sasvim pogresan odgovor. To pitanje je: sta da radimo kad doktrina nacionalnog suvereniteta stiti drzavu koja narusava ljudska prava svojih gradjana? Pravi odgovor nikako ne bi trebalo da bude jos veci obim krsenja ljudskih prava. Naprotiv, naucimo nesto i od SAD-a: tamo postoje kaznena dela saveznog ranga a savezna (federalna) policija koja se njima bavi rasporedjena je po citavoj zemlji. Kako bi bilo da i mi rasporedimo UN-ove posmatrace i UN-ove trupe tamo gde su potrebne kao meru cisto preventivnog karaktera?

Priroda ljudskih prava je univerzalna. Ona su takodje i nedeljiva. Jedna zemlja ne moze da odbaci ekonomska i socijalna prava, a da i dalje razvije jedino gradjanska i politicka prava. Mnogi kriminalci bi voleli da mogu da s Krivicnim zakonom svoje zemlje urade ono sto SAD rade sa Medjunarodnim pravom, ratificirajuci samo jednu od konvencija od 16. decembra 1996. ali ne i one o ekonomskim i socijalnim pravima.

Ono sto nam tek predstoji je veliko medjusobno sukobljavanje 19 zemalja clanica NATO-a, a verovatno i vecine ostalog sveta, medju kojima narocito onih nad kojima su se sastavila kljesta NATO-ovog sirenja u pravcu istoka dok se istovremano AMPO siri na zapad. Euro-Azija, staniste vise od polovine covecanstva sve ovo posmatra s velikim strahom. Ko je sledeci na redu za bombardovanje? Ili ce to mozda biti neka od Latino-americkih zemalja, Kolumbija na pr, gde SAD ne koriste NATO nego TIAP, latinoamericki vojni sistem?

Citav svet danas ima jedan veliki problem. Taj problem ima i svoje ime. Njegovo ime nije Milosevic – on je samo obican lokalni malo-varoski siledzija. Ime problema je Sjedinjene Drzave Amerike.

Sebi pridaju izuzetnu vaznost, postavljaju se iznad obicnih drzava i naroda a to osecanje je privlacno i moze da ponese. Prekrsiti istovremeno toliko mnogo clanova razlicitih medjunarodnih zakona sebi moze da dozvoliti samo onaj ko misli da je on sam iznad zakona, u neposrednom dodiru s Bogom svemogucim koji je “Ameriku stvorio zato da bi na svetu zavela red” (gen. Kolin Pauel) ili izrazeno nesto svetovnijim terminima, onaj koji pripada “globalnoj naciji, koja ima globalne interese” (gen. alikasvili).

Male drzave ce se sjatiti oko ‘Jedine Izuzetne’ da bi se i same okupale u makar malo, kao od hladnog meseca, od nje odbijene svetlosti, a moze biti i ogrejale na vatri kojom ona przi nevernicke nacije. Takav manir uostalom ionako prdstasvlja staru tradiciju Zapada.

Preostaje nam samo da se ponadamo kako ce posle ove zarazne groznice nasilja kojom Srbe pokusavamo da nateramo na kapitulaciju ipak uslediti kakvo-takvo otreznjenje. Ponadajmo se jos i da ce do njega doci na vreme da izbegnemo Treci svetski rat.

  • TV/Radio Interviews, Meetings; Sergels Torg, Stockholm May 24, 1999

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Tony Robinson October 4, 2026 Violence is easy to recognise when someone is being beaten, shot or killed. It becomes more difficult when nobody is holding a weapon. Poverty, discrimination, exploitation and repression can restrict a human life just as effectively, although they do so in very different ways and with very different consequences. Simply adding more categories to an ever-growing list of forms of violence does not really solve the problem. The more interesting question is what all these different situations have in common and why it makes sense to describe them using the same word. Human beings do not simply react to what happens around them. They remember the past, imagine things that do not yet exist, make plans and undertake projects. Workers organise because they imagine different working conditions; people migrate because they imagine another life somewhere else; social movements emerge because people refuse to accept the...
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It’s a matter of principles, courage, vision and pulling together – while the militarist world is falling apart… Peter Langille October 3, 2026 “Here, then, is the problem which we present to you, stark and dreadful and inescapable: Shall we put an end to the human race; or shall mankind renounce war?”The Bertrand Russell—Albert Einstein Manifesto, July 9, 1955 ⁕ The forecast for what’s ahead is worrisome. The sharp rise in armed conflicts over the past three years is adding to what was already the highest level in over seventy years. Genocides, which should be prevented are supported. A shared climate emergency that jeopardises survival is ignored. Diverse polls now suggest that people are war-weary, worried and interested in a more effective United Nations. And, there are viable policy options for a more secure world! Yet governments are doubling-down, betting on more war and investing heavily. If current trends persist,...
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Johan Galtung 1930-2024October 2015 Published here on October 3, 2026 Let us focus on Civilization for conflict analysis and remedies. Major forms of disorder use violence; war is state organized violence. The most belligerent states are the United States of America and Israel, both with civilization roots. National Evangelism, the US Protestant Christian civilization– more national than evangelical–justifies US warfare as exceptionalism of a people chosen by God, with a manifest destiny to run the world. Orthodox Judaism justifies Israeli warfare to conquer and expand from Nile to Euphrates as a religious right and duty to the Eternal One. The third most belligerent country, the UK, no longer believes it is God-chosen but chosen by the USA; not quite the same but something. But the root cause of global disorder lies in the Occident–with Islam–seeing itself as the single, universal civilization valid for all at all times, all others being...
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Jan ObergPhD, director, The Transnational Foundation for Peace and Future Research, TFFLund, Sweden October 2, 2026 This is my full original manuscript. The Chinese Academy of Social Science, CASS, makes two publications out if it. 1. China’s Five-year plan emphasized the capabilities of basic research and original innovation. It is regarded as the goal of the future social development, which, as required, should be significantly enhanced. Can you comment on the importance of original innovation in research and academic study? I believe it is easier to define “original innovation” in the natural sciences than in social sciences. The breaking points of what constitutes something new, or innovative, are not quite as sharp in the latter. But in both fields it is about opening up something that was closed, unseen, unexplored before – making manifest what was earlier latent. Innovations come in many forms and shapes – naming something that was not...
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The agreement is catastrophic both because of what it says and what it doesn’t mention. It reduces further the major asset of security policies: Freedom of action. Jan Oberg TFF director September 25, 2026 A couple of hours before the agreement was signed on September 22, 2026, I published the following 13 hypotheses about what it would most likely contain on TFF Substack (in English). I was wrong on only the first point. Contrary to what Trump had written on his Truth Social platform, it does not appear to come into force immediately. In fact, it turned out to be worse than even I had anticipated. After these hypotheses now come a number of reflections in light of what the agreement actually contains, and does not contain, as well as the way in which it has generally been presented by major media outlets and by the public-service broadcaster DR. My...
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Below are TFF-related media mentions, comments, videos and social media posts published elsewhere but not on this homepage. We happen to catch and list only a fraction. Regarding video comments and debates, we recommend that you go to the TFF Video Channel on Substack where many of them are reproduced. Jan Oberg is a contributor to China Daily – 52 million daily clicks – and Global Times, CGTN and CCTV (the national television), China Investment, Xinhua News Agency and several others. Articles and videos on these media very often multiply into countless Chinese (and Western media) that re-post them from these main media. Thanks to The China Academy, his analyses, interviews and comments are frequently posted on YouTube channels such as Thinkers Forum and Wave Media. These videos are often re-posted on Bilibili (China’s YouTube), the China Content Center on TikTok, and on the Chinese edition of TikTok, Douyin.com. This means reaching hundreds of millions of viewers worldwide over a year. While there are too many to catch on all these...