New Delhi – The slumbering giant may be about to awaken again. The danger of returning to the Hindu growth rate will be washed away at next year’s election. The era of indecision and drift, with only the decision to become an open nuclear weapons state as evidence of decisiveness, will hopefully be consigned to the dustbin of history. This is how senior members of the Congress party would like it to be – and maybe they are largely right, although very few in the electorate of the largest democracy in the world will forget that while Congress, the party of Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru, led their country to independence from the British, it also produced the “emergency” of Mrs Indira Gandhi (Nehru’s daughter) when democracy was suspended and when it finally was allowed to return she was swept out of office, and the corruption of the administration of Rajiv Gandhi, her son.
This time, say the optimists, it will be different. The murder of Mrs Gandhi by her Sikh bodyguards and the murder of her son Rajiv by a Tamil militant has left the party in the hands of Sonia, the Italian born wife of Rajiv. Can this shy housewife of limited formal education preside effectively over a country that has to make hard decisions on how fast and far to expand its nuclear armoury, how to deal with Pakistan and its attempt to wrestle the Indian state of Kashmir into Pakistani hands, and how to get India to return to the high growth rates of the previous Congress government so that it can match China’s and in so doing make serous inroads on bettering the conditions of its hundreds of million of impoverished who live still mainly on the land?
In recent years India has been torn by intercommunal violence of quite frightening proportions, mainly aimed against Muslims, but also against Christians. Hindu nationalism took political form in the present Bharatiya Janata party government and although it has been presided over by Atal Behari Vajpayee, a prime minister of enormous intelligence, he has not been able in his old age to control the rabid wings of his party and its affiliates with the sureness of touch that India needs. Indeed his premiership reflects a problem that cuts across the political dividing line – the tendency for the political parties, when not choosing a leader from the Nehru dynasty, to gravitate to an older leader, preferably one who has had major heart surgery and whose grip on both the country and the party is less than tough.
Can Mrs Sonia Gandhi be that person? The grieving, undereducated widow has become a political force in her own right. After years of resisting those who wanted her to step into her husband”s shoes she finally three years ago allowed herself to be prevailed upon to take over the Congress leadership. The party was visibly disintegrating after years of internecine feuding and the men she respected in the party told her that she was the only unifying force. Many in her circle call her “Kungi Kureya”, Hindi for a mute doll. I have to say I disagree. She has been a fast learner of complex matters and it’s not her fault that it takes an individual a lifetime to master on the one hand, economics or on the other nuclear strategy. She knows her inadequacies, she knows she has made a late start but she is diligently working to overcome them by reading and discussion. Her mind is both fresh and agile and – although of no committed practising religious belief – her Catholic value system gives her an anchor in a turbulent sea. Above all she is, as one high placed advisor but sharp critic told me, “a good person”.
Arguably her most important advisor is Manmohan Singh. If she hadn’t stepped out of the shadows he would probably have become party leader. But he is one of those exceptional men, a brilliant economist who is widely regarded as the architect of India’s break out from the Hindu growth rate, but is also exceedingly modest and self-effacing. On his abilities will rest a large part of the success of a Congress government. At the end of the day, whatever mistakes are made in foreign policy or Kashmir policy, the electorate will support a continuing Congress government only if it delivers the economic goods. Along with many outside experts, Singh regards China’s economic statistics as containing a large amount of wishful thinking. Rather than its recent growth rates being in the phenomenal 8-10% range it is more likely to be around 6.5%, the rate he aspires India to achieve. “China’s success is probably a consistent 6%+ growth rate for 20 years. There is no reason we can’t do the same”. Then he hopes the large amounts of foreign capital flows that have aided the Chinese lift off will start to flow to India.
This begs the question of Kashmir. If India can’t find an alternative to its constant state of war readiness with Pakistan it can never hope to realize its economic potential. That nettle Congress will have to grasp if it is to succeed. Then it will remain a slumbering giant – and deservedly so.
I can be reached by phone +44 7785 351172 and e-mail: JonatPower@aol.com
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