Conflict

Jan Oberg April 8, 2024 This 7-minute video was shot by The China Academy in January 2024, posted on Wave Media on YouTube and then picked up by Taiwan’s CTi News and the Chinese Global Times magazine. This means a very large audience. Here is the link to see the many comments it created. I’m simply trying, in the shortest possible manner, to summarise what is happening these years from a macrohistorical perspective. If you think this way of thinking is interesting, why not reward TFF for bringing you fresh, different perspectives and always with a touch of a better future and a more peaceful world? It’s fast, simple and safe. Just hit this Big Red Button

Liberate yourself from NATO’s anti-intellectual and militarist fearmongering today! Why the omnipresent, massive, and uniform propagation of Russia as a threat against NATO is humbug. How a credible professional quality threat analysis is made instead. Why deciding military expenditures as a percentage of GDP is exemplary nonsense. Why NATO cannot be called ‘defensive’ and 17 reasons why Russia is not a threat to NATO or to neutral states. Jan Oberg March 19, 2024 NATO soon turns 75 – amid its deepest crisis ever, no matter what they say. During all these years, we have heard repeatedly that the ” Russians” – the Soviet Union/Warsaw Pact and today’s Russia – are coming! But while the Soviets/Russians have invaded other countries, they’ve never invaded a NATO or a neutral country in Europe. And when the First Cold War ended a good 30 years ago, and archives were opened, allegedly no plans were...

Dedication To all the brave people who refuse to participate in war, in Ukraine, Russia and everywhere else. “War is a crime against humanity. I am therefore determined not to support any kind of war, and to strive for the removal of all causes of war”The pacifist declaration of War Resisters’ International. Back cover text “How can you be a pacifist in times like these?” THE SCEPTIC asks, the Russian invasion of Ukraine fresh in mind. Majken Jul Sørensen’s first response is to counter with the opposite question: “How can you not be a pacifist in times like these? With all that we know about the consequences of modern warfare, why are all the alternatives to war not on the table?”  In “Pacifism Today”, Majken illustrates with numerous examples her understanding of pacifism and her commitment to nonviolent action and unarmed resistance to war. In this personal reflection on why...

A video conversation about those three connected themes was published in December 2023 on various Chinese Channels and on two YouTube channels, Wave Media and Thinkers Forum, where you may also see the viewers’ comments. In the first two months, they were seen by around 100,000 people and stimulated 1200 positive, even moving, comments. These days, such an interest in peace – and in Western historical wrongdoings – is unusual and can be found almost exclusively outside the Western world. It was recorded and produced in November 2023 by The China Academy, a media syndicating organisation in Shanghai. Please also consult the TFF report Yugoslavia – What Should Have Been Done? It contains all texts – the equivalent of 2000+ A4 pages – by Johan Galtung, Håkan Wiberg and Jan Oberg and published as written back then and not changed or editor ex-post, so everyone can see where they were...

NATO now holds its largest military exercise for decades, Steadfast Defender, involving 90 000 troops from all 31 NATO members and Sweden Jan Oberg February 19, 2024 Over the last 70 years, we have heard here in Europe that ”the Russians are coming.” During the old Cold War ending in 1991, they did come to Hungary (1956), Czechoslovakia (1968) – and Afghanistan (1979). But they came neither to any of the neutral countries – Finland, Sweden, Switzerland, Yugoslavia or Austria – nor to any NATO member. NATO’s militarist predictions and enemy images have proven consistently wrong over seven decades. During the First Cold War, the Moscow-dominated Warsaw Pact’s military expenditures were about 65-80% of NATO, and its technology and efficiency was way behind that of its Western brother. But to be sure, the OSCE – the Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe (set up in the early 1970s with...

Johan Galtung – over 50 years my dear friend, collaborator and one of my two peace research mentors – died this morning. He was 93. He was, beyond any doubt, one of the greatest and most innovative social scientists of our time and one of the early pioneers of the academic field of peace and conflict research. He was a controversial intellectual to some extent – the envy, of course, by others – but kept true to his Gandhian-inspired nonviolent values where many succumbed to ‘security’ with weapons. He was also a TFF Associate since 1986 and we remained in contact – last, just a few days ago. You’ll find hundreds of articles by his hand on TFF’s present and earlier archive sites. I smile when I think of the countless hours we spent together exploring the world and coming up with new ideas. I owe him more than words...

Photo: Ash Hayes on Unsplash Tending the fronts of conflict Kristin ChristmanTFF Associate February 15, 2024 On Wednesday, October 25, 2023, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated, “Our war against Hamas is a test for all of humanity. It is a fight between the Iran-Hezbollah-Hamas axis of evil and the forces of freedom and progress. . . We are the people of the light, they are the people of darkness. Light will triumph over darkness.”[1] Now where have we heard those lines before? The axis of evil, the forces of light and freedom, the forces of darkness: these prejudiced phrases are so stale they’ve grown moldy. The war in Ukraine, we’re to believe, is against dark, evil Russia. Biden’s National Security Strategy 2022 speaks of the “darker vision” of US adversaries. The Cold War was against the “Evil Empire.” In every single US war for the past two and a half centuries,...

, I had the great pleasure of being Ania K’s guest on her YouTube Channel. Here is a link to it – and I want you to use the link to access it on YouTube and not here. The amusing thing is that it’s been viewed by 11,000 people in a few days, and less than a week later, there are 160 comments, 99,99 % positive about the whole thing. I note a frequent comment from Ania’s viewers: Where have you been hiding, Jan? How come I did not hear about him before and that sort of “we never heard about him…” comments. This is striking after having been the co-founder and director of the Transnational Foundation since 1986 – and quite active in doing research, on-the-ground conflict mitigation work and having written thousands of articles, book chapters and comments. But I’ve heard it before and here are some reasons: One,...

Jan Oberg February 6, 2024 Regrettably, the world’s allegedly most prestigious prize has been awarded to many who did not qualify according to the will of Alfred Nobel. I want to direct your attention to the most important book written about the peace deception called the Nobel Peace Prize. In his last meticulously researched book, “The Real Nobel Peace Prize. A Squandered Opportunity to Abolish War,” my friend and TFF Associate Fredrik Heffermehl (1938-2023) showed that only 36 out of 134 awards would qualify according to Nobel’s clearly anti-militarist intentions. Here is how Nobel himself formulated, in his will, that this prize should go “to the person who has done the most or best to advance fellowship among nations, the abolition or reduction of standing armies, and the establishment and promotion of peace congresses” and that this prize for the “champions of peace” should be awarded “by a committee of...

TFF Associate Since the end of the Cold War and increasingly in recent years, US officials followed as usual by their European allies, have coined a new phrase which they use instead of international law, namely ‘rules-based international order’ (RBO). Leiden Journal of International Law has published an online book (published by Cambridge University Press) that explores the ramifications of this new term. It asks: “What is this creature, the ‘rules-based international order’, that American political leaders have increasingly invoked since the end of the Cold War instead of international law? Is it a harmless synonym for international law, as suggested by European leaders? Or is it something else, a system meant to replace international law which has governed the behaviour of states for over 500 years?” It argues that the RBO is the United States’ alternative to international law, an order that encapsulates international law as interpreted by the...

Action Committee For Call to Conscience About Gaza February 5, 2024 To be updated As mentioned earlier here on The Transnational, the “Emergency London Conference of Global Intellectuals of Conscience Concerning the Genocide in Gaza”, arranged by Turkey’s former PM and former foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu and Richard Falk, professor emeritus at Princeton University and TFF Associate since 1986 was held January 27-28, 2024. It was based on this Declaration created prior to the conference. The conclusions and planned actions from the London conference “Supporters of the Declaration of Conscience and Concerns to stop genocide in Gaza met in London on January 27, 2024. Participants came from more than 25 countries. The emergency conference was responding to the genocidal catastrophe in the Gaza Strip, and the recent interim order of the International Court of Justice. The Conference was convened by former Prime Minister of Turkey, Ahmet Davutoglu, and Queen Mary...

Photo – Mohamed Nohassi on Unsplash Jan Oberg December 30, 2023 ”It is difficult to make predictions, particularly about the future.”Unknown but wise person’s statement. I do not pretend my predictions below are scientific or based on a sophisticated social science methodology. They are merely intuitive and hypothetical and based on some of my accumulated knowledge and experience about international affairs over more than four decades. You may say they grow out of a Wright Mills-like sociological – and peace research – imagination. I regret I can’t mobilise more optimism at this point in world history. I hope, therefore, that many of these predictions will turn out to be wrong. But keep or archive them. Time will tell. (1) The war on Gaza will continue, probably for months or years, and the worldwide anger directed at Israel will increase exponentially. Israel will be more and more isolated and attacked in...