Conflict

The agreement is catastrophic both because of what it says and what it doesn’t mention. It reduces further the major asset of security policies: Freedom of action. Jan Oberg TFF director September 25, 2026 A couple of hours before the agreement was signed on September 22, 2026, I published the following 13 hypotheses about what it would most likely contain on TFF Substack (in English). I was wrong on only the first point. Contrary to what Trump had written on his Truth Social platform, it does not appear to come into force immediately. In fact, it turned out to be worse than even I had anticipated. After these hypotheses now come a number of reflections in light of what the agreement actually contains, and does not contain, as well as the way in which it has generally been presented by major media outlets and by the public-service broadcaster DR. My...

Jan Oberg May 15, 2026 Go to this Fox News page and scroll the whole way down: President Donald Trump tells the world that his meeting with President Xi Jinping yielded a lot of very concrete political and economic results – of course, only where the Chinese side, according to him, agreed with him. He does not mention the Taiwan issue, but Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, says that it did not feature prominently in their talks and that the US policy on Taiwan has not changed. Then go to China Daily – or Global Times – and you will see that for the Chinese it is framework, principles, structure of cooperation etc. that matters – all embedded in the overall idea of “constructive bilateral relationship of strategic stability.” Nowhere is any concrete agreement or deal – all that Trump refers to – mentioned. At the general level, this gives you insights into the very different social...

The MIMAC – Military-Industrial-Media-Academic Complex – drives the world’s rampant militarism and wars without end. Here is a short reflection of how it works against all interests of humanity. #5 deals with why there is no real enemy or threat images/analysis. It’s all ex-post constructions. And, btw, theTFF Peace Pulse is now on Rumble.

Jan Oberg, TFF director April 28, 2026 In this third TFF Peace Pulse, I make the important distinction between the violence and the conflict that violence is a symptom of. If you want peace, focus on the underlying conflict because that is the key to resolution, peacemaking, and a better future for the parties. The West is obsessed with violence, just look around you – and 90+ per cent of the public debate is about military issues and other violence – totally wasted for peace. These Peace Pulses will only be published here a few times. You will also not find them on YouTube and Vimeo because both platforms have blocked TFF and me; you know, peace is dangerous these days. Most TFF’s videos since 2007 are now on Rumble.

Jan Oberg, TFF director April 9, 2026 I was recently invited to have a good, long talk about the world – and, of course, about peace too – with Boris Malagurski on his Weight of Chains Channel on YouTube. It was a real joy and seems to have been greatly appreciated by the viewers too. Mr Malagurski and I shall of course be grateful if you share this conversation in your circles – of course, only if you like what you see and hear 😉☮️ And remember that this one – like hundreds of others with TFF Associates – can be enjoyed at our TFF Video Collection.

TFF’s comprehensive proposal for dialogue about true peace in Ukraine is due in a day or two Jan Oberg November 20, 2025 What is being whispered through diplomatic corridors today is not peace, but quackery. The alleged 28‑point plan drafted in Washington and Moscow is mentioned as a solution to the Ukraine war. It is being negotiated by US businessman, real estate developer and Trump ally, Steve Witkoff, and by Kirill Dmitriev, who is CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund and a close ally of Putin, according to India’s Economic Times. For presumably good reasons, their education, qualifications and experience in international conflict analysis and peace-making remain untold. They look like surgeons who have never opened a medical textbook. It is nothing more than a mirage: a framework of concessions imposed on Ukraine’s citizens, negotiated without Kyiv, and excluding Europe. Like Gaza, it promises “peace” while institutionalising injustice. If half of what is available about...

The World Is a Sphere, But It Needs Zones of Peace Biljana Vankovska Professor emerita, TFF Board member November 13, 2025 As members of a global intellectual public, concerned not merely with knowledge but with humanity’s survival, we hunger for debates that are as rigorous as transformative, i.e. debates capable of imagining a fundamentally different world order. The latest exchange between two most distinguished US professors, Jeffrey Sachs and John Mearsheimer, has proven highly attractive and necessary. Yet, in my opinion, it does not transcend existing paradigms (despite the introduction of the concept of “spheres of security”) and offers no solutions for the structural and deep-rooted problems. As promised, albeit with some delay, here I am, stepping into the arena of intellectual giants in international relations and political economy. My intention is not to challenge their brilliance or integrity but to advocate for a pluralization of voices and perspectives. The small states and postcolonial...

People’s criticism without offering any solutions and their focus on the past and present, but almost never on the future, are the two biggest obstacles to real change. And to making peace… Jan Oberg August 21, 2025 This conversation is not about Endless Militarism. The real title of Pascal Nottaz’ and my conversation is the one on top – “If You Want Peace, Be Creative And Focus On The Future.”  Jan Oberg considers it one of his most important online conversations.

Foreword The Board of The Transnational Foundation in Sweden has decided to publish an easy-to-read, scholarly anthology that addresses one of the most important – and potentially dangerous – issues of our time: Why are the political, economic, and medialised Western images of China so consistently negative – and what can you do to understand China better? These images may be expressions of a political will to present only various shades of grey and black with the aim of building a consciousness about China as an enemy and not a partner. They may also be seen as a sort of world-dominating ethos of ignorance based upon the assumption that “we’ve-got-nothing-to-learn-from-others,’ we are the teacher. Another possibility is that the West, deep down, feels that it is getting relatively weaker from a macro-historical perspective and comforts itself with denial and accusations against “the other” of being the reason for its manifest...

We’ve seen it repeatedly: You invent a pretext based on deliberate lies, fake news, exaggerations or a false flag operation which serves to construct a story that country or leader X is a threat to “us” which legitimates that we do a ‘preemptive’ strike against that – obviously invented – threat to eliminate it. Mainstream media’s task is to propagate the ploy, not to ask questions or reveal the lie. Take Serbia’s ‘genocide’ in Kosovo, Afghanistan’s responsibility for 9/11, Saddam’s possession of nukes in Iraq, Assad’s use of chemical weapons against the Syrians, Gaddafi’s ‘mass murder’ in Bengazi, Russia’s planning to occupy and administer not only Ukraine but also a series of European countries thereafter, Hamas’ attack on Israel – that Israel knew everything about before it happened – and now you have the blatant lie about Iran’s being just about to become a nuclear weapons power. Basic facts about...

With a few words about the US’ domestic authoritarianism and NATO’s reckless expansion and re-armament where everything else but that is needed. George Orwell’s prophetic book, 1984, was written in 1948 and was published on 9 June 1949. So, today is the 76th anniversary of the publication of that important and prophetic book. The book centres on the consequences of the decline of democracy and the rise of totalitarianism, mass surveillance and repressive regimentation of people’s behaviour within society. The book was influenced by totalitarianism under Stalin and censorship and propaganda under the Nazis. The book is not about any particular society but refers to any society that falls under the influence of those oppressive policies. The book is basically about the power of propaganda and indoctrination employed in the service of authoritarian rulers and regimes. Orwell warned us that the manipulation of the public in the service of autocracies did...

War-preparation and militarism are now the main factors that keep the West together, and will make it fall faster. The Western world has lost its consciousness, perception, and instruments of conflict analysis, resolution, peace-making, and reconciliation. They’ve been squeezed out by militarism’s kakistocrats – a political science term that means government by “the worst, least qualified, or most unscrupulous people.” Consequently, there is now a risk of more than 50% that a major war will happen in Europe. I’ve been observing silently for weeks and months now how geopolitical experts – also very qualified ones – and people who comment independently as well as in the mainstream media and many others have worked on the tacit, implicit assumption that President Trump would help create peace in Ukraine; they seem to believe that what we have witnessed has anything to do with knowledge-based, professional peace-making or would have even the slightest...