December 2000

Att EU så småningom skulle militariseras var förutsägbart. Det ligger inte i stor- eller superstat/makters natur eller kreativitet att se storheten i ickevåld, i dialog, tolerans, eller andliga världen. I EU &endash; vars viktigaste aktörer är f d kolonialmakter, kärnvapenmakter och/eller kulturellt våldsliga &endash; började militariseringen för ungefär tio år sedan med t ex det fransk-tyska militära samarbetet. Under tio år gjorde ingen i västvärlden någonting för att rädda Kosovo-frågan undan krigets helvete. Inte i någon annan konflikt fanns det så många tidiga varningar och så lite tidigt lyssnande och tidig handling. Vare sig Sverige, övriga Norden, EU, NATO och USA gjorde någonting för att åstadkomma en fredlig lösning genom förhandling &endash; som man gör i t ex Mellanöstern och Nordirland. Man missade varje chans till våldsförebyggande diplomati i en sådan grad och under tio år att man kunde få tanken att någon önskade ett krig. I strid med FN:s...

Gandhi i Sydafrika En film av Maj Wechselman By Sverigespremiär den 29 september i Stockholm på Grand Biografen, i Göteborg på Svea,i Malmö på Spegeln och i Lund på Kine  Denna film är resultatet av det första stora filmsamarbetet mellan Sverige och Sydafrika – 600 statister deltar. När Gandhi steg i land i Sydafrika var han en bortskämt överklassyngling, utbildad som advokat i England. Indier var inte populära i Sydafrika och snart blev Gandhi det nya landets mest skarpögda kritiker. Ändå bildar han en frivillig indisk ambulanskår och blir själv ambulanssoldat i det blodiga Boerkriget. I det isolerade indiska gettot i Johannesburg slår pesten ned. Gandhi ser till att isolera de pestsmittade indierna och improviserar ett pestsjukhus där han själv med ett fåtal andra tar hand om de döende. Ett par år senare gör zuluhövdingen Bambatha uppror i Natal. Åter marscherar Gandhi ut som ambulanssoldat. Men det finns knappast någon...

The TRANSCEND perspective is an alternative THE FLAWED PROCESS [1] Extremists excluded, meaning Hamas and Likud/Orthodox, the agreement being between PLO and Labor/Secular-Modern; probably related to Norwegian social democrat “reason is in the middle”. This works in moderate Norway, but not when more than 50% may feel excluded. They also have peace concepts, and they will announce themselves (like killing Rabin, like suicide bombs). [2] Peace actors/movements both sides excluded, Intifadah, Peace Now, not even acknowledged; yet their action was indispensable. [3] USA is not a signatory, even if it is a major actor on the Israeli side, posing as “third party”. Was Oslo acting for USA? [4] A general underestimation of polarization inside Palestine and Israel; overestimation of whether the accords are binding. [5] An unnecessary amount of secrecy, no dialogue with public. The outcome, structure [6] Lack of symmetry: the agreement does not define two states, but a state and an “autonomy” which in...

LONDON – George Bush, the victor of an imperfect presidential election, looks out on a world that has become increasingly democratic the last decade and shows all the characteristics of becoming more so. But the less than straightforward way that Bush won and, in particular, how obvious it became that U.S. courts were political creatures, raises the profound worry that this will rub off on many parts of the world, which may now be democratic but which are immaturely so. We won’t know the answer to that for some while but, meanwhile, reported recently in a new study published by Freedom House, an American organization that monitors trends in democracy, is some heartening evidence that we are in the midst of an era of historic progress. First, it has become apparent that ethnic warfare, a major impediment since the demise of the Cold War to the further spread of democracy, is...

LONDON – President Bill Clinton who has just arrived in Northern Ireland likes to think the Good Friday peace agreement of 1998 was one of his great accomplishments. Apart from the fact that he was but one pivotal actor among many, the truth is it is far too early to boast. The silencing of the guns and the creation of an Assembly in which sit militant Catholic Republicans who wish the north to be joined with independent Eire to the south, and equally passionate Protestants who want to ensure that the north is forever wedded to the United Kingdom, is an undoubted accomplishment. But it has all been done on a fudge. At bottom the positions of both sides are irreconcilable and the stresses and strains that have made ribbons of previous understandings can re-surface at any moment. Clinton can use his charisma to push things along an inch or two,...

Some reflections on conflict management in the 1990s PressInfo 107 dealt with the conclusions the EU seems to draw from the Balkan crisis, Kosovo in particular. The lessons I, a peace researcher with some knowledge about the region, would pinpoint go in the following, quite different, direction: 1. The EU must first of all improve its capacity to diagnose and understand complex conflicts, conduct early warning, early listening and early action and intervene with civilian capacity to create talks, dialogues, brainstorms and negotiations in close co-operation with all conflicting parties. I would suggest that it attempts to reduce national interests and intervene as impartially as it can and attack problems rather than actors. It is essential to understand that the earlier we intervene and the less violent a conflict is, the easier it is to help solve it without politicising the situation and the easier it is to control prestige,...

Kosovo/a independent? By Jan Oberg, TFF director (Erratum to PressInfo 105 after this text) The main proposal in the independent international Kosovo Commission’s report is that Kosovo should be given conditional independence. This PressInfo deals with this proposal and a few other aspects of the report. THE FIRST PARAGRAPH The very first paragraph of the report’s executive statement states: "The origins of the crisis have to be understood in terms of a new wave of nationalism that led to the rise of Milosevic and the official adoption of an extreme Serbian nationalist agenda. The revocation of Kosovo’s autonomy in 1989 was followed by a Belgrade policy aimed at changing the ethnic composition of Kosovo and creating an apartheid-like society." Here are some simple counter arguments: a) nationalism alone certainly can not explain the conflicts in the region; b) not only the Serbs used nationalism, so did Bosnian Muslim, Croats, Macedonians,...

It was quite predictable that the EU would militarise itself. In fact, one of the world’s leading peace researchers, TFF adviser Johan Galtung, predicted that in his book about the EU from 1972, “A Superpower in the Making.” It is not in the nature of big powers to see greatness in nonviolence, dialogue, tolerance or in playing the role of one among many. The EU – – whose main players are former colonial powers and present nuclear powers and/or culturally violent – – began their militarisation some ten years ago with the French-German military co-operation, and it got another boost with the French-British agreement in 1998 in Saint Malo. And today’s EU Nice Summit is likely to put the militarisation of EU on an irreversible path, most likely to a new Cold War. Today it is the so-called Eurocorps which is formally in charge of NATO/KFOR in Kosovo. Internally, the EU struggles...

LONDON – Al Gore, facing political defeat in an election that appears to have been stolen, certainly knows what unhappiness is. George W. Bush and his mother clearly know the contrary feeling. “Gosh,” Barbara Bush told CBS television, “It was great to be the mother of the president for 30 minutes”. Unlike the rest of her tough-blooded brood she is known as a modest woman. Perhaps that was sufficient for her. After all every sensible person knows that moments of peak happiness don’t last for much longer than half an hour anyway. Yet high moments aside do we know what happiness is? Is the world becoming a happier place? Are we happier than our parent’s or grandparent’s generation? What could give us a little more happiness? I recall twenty-five years ago an article on the subject published by Geraldine Norman, the art saleroom correspondent of the London Times. I haven’t seen...

Intellectually the Kosovo Commission Report is a turkey and it won’t fly By Jan Oberg, TFF director We expect soldiers we send to the front to have some military education and training. As patients we hope the doctor has studied medicine. And who would write a constitution for a new state if not professionally educated lawyers? But not so when it comes to conflict-analysis, mediation or peace-making. In this field it seems that neither specific education, practical experience nor knowledge about the conflicting parties and their cultures is of any importance. The important thing is that you want to do good. Last year, Prime Minister Goran Persson of Sweden took the initiative to establish an independent international commission tasked with analysing the equally enigmatic and tragic Kosovo conflict and NATO’s bombing as well as outline the lessons to be learnt. He appointed Richard Goldstone, the well-respected South African judge and...

We expect soldiers we send to the front to have some military education and training. As patients we hope the doctor has studied medicine. And who would write a constitution for a new state if not professionally educated lawyers? But not so when it comes to conflict-analysis, mediation or peace-making. In this field it seems that neither specific education, practical experience nor knowledge about the conflicting parties and their cultures is of any importance. The important thing is that you want to do good. Last year, Prime Minister Goran Persson of Sweden took the initiative to establish an independent international commission tasked with analysing the equally enigmatic and tragic Kosovo conflict and NATO’s bombing as well as outline the lessons to be learnt. He appointed Richard Goldstone, the well-respected South African judge and former chief prosecutor of the Hague Tribunal to chair it together with former Swedish education minister, Carl...

(Erratum to PressInfo 105 after this text) The main proposal in the independent international Kosovo Commission’s report is that Kosovo should be given conditional independence. This PressInfo deals with this proposal and a few other aspects of the report. THE FIRST PARAGRAPH The very first paragraph of the report’s executive statement states: “The origins of the crisis have to be understood in terms of a new wave of nationalism that led to the rise of Milosevic and the official adoption of an extreme Serbian nationalist agenda. The revocation of Kosovo’s autonomy in 1989 was followed by a Belgrade policy aimed at changing the ethnic composition of Kosovo and creating an apartheid-like society.” Here are some simple counter arguments: a) nationalism alone certainly can not explain the conflicts in the region; b) not only the Serbs used nationalism, so did Bosnian Muslim, Croats, Macedonians, Slovenes and Albanians at the time; c)...