TFF global posts 2022

All wars are different from other wars and, thus, it is impossible to use the experiences of one war to predict the course, end, and consequences of the next. Yet, some wars and peace conferences are more important than others because they fundamentally change history. The war in Ukraine is a proxy war between Russia and NATO/USA, in which the USA openly says that the aim is to exhaust Russia. This raises several questions: If that is the purpose of the USA/NATO, then what will be the reaction of an existentially threatened and nuclear-armed Russia? One may further ask whether, in the light of nuclear war, there is something untouched ‘outside’ that will not be affected by the consequences of a nuclear war: a first destruction, after which the survivors will face global nuclear winter, with famine and mass death. If there is no ‘outside’ in a nuclear war, it...

A shorter version was printed as my column in China Daily on the same day here. Empires go up and then they go down. None lasts forever. Imperial falls can be very dangerous. The Soviet Union dissolved thirty years ago. The US Empire is next in turn. In contrast to the Soviet case, the United States has no charismatic leader like Mikhail Gorbachev who with a sense of reality – that the system was out of function – held a vision of a better, disarmed Europe and world, and who conducted reforms – perestroika, glasnost, demokratyia – in a tempo that astounded the world and was bound to also produce mistakes. Most importantly, we should be grateful to this day that Gorbachev never even contemplated using nukes when he recognised that the game was over. There are many macro-historical theories with indicators of when empires decline, decay and then tumble...

Gordon DumoulinTFF Associate June 1, 2022 “When I went to China, I went to teach; but every day that I stayed I thought less of what I had to teach them and more of what I had to learn from them,” Bertrand Russell’s notes in 1920 (British Philosopher 1872-1970) In 1922, Bertrand Russell published a book “The Problem Of China” – see below – based on his study and also experience during his year in Beijing teaching at the University of Peking as Professor of Philosophy. While many books about China have a shelf life of actuality merely lasting for months to a few years, Russell’s book “The Problem Of China” has stood the test of time mapping out where China would stand about a century later. Although the title might appear as anti-China, it is quite the opposite. It predicts China’s resurgence and outlines the strength of Chinese civilization...

Jan Oberg May 31, 2022 It was the first visit to China by a UN human rights chief in 17 years. For years, governments and human rights organisations have accused China of many kinds of human rights violations – and a series of them calls what has happened in Xinjiang “genocide” in line, one could add, with former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s “determination” that that was the correct label to put on it while not publishing one word of documentation to back up that grave accusation against China and its president. After years of meticulous preparations, Mme Michelle Bachelet – a former President of Chile, a physician who has studied military strategy and who has served as both Health Minister and Defense Minister and has a significant personal experience with Pinochet’s reign of terror – sent an advance team, then went to China herself, had a zoom conversation...

Jan Oberg May 31, 2022 This is a deeply moving documentary produced by CGTN, China Global Television Network. You may of course avoid seeing it in the belief that China media are full of propaganda, deception and outright lies – and that Western mainstream media is all you need because they tell you the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. What it illustrates is the societally deep-rooted, systematic and ongoing character of US militarism since the Vietnam war fifty years ago – and how you were lied to constantly. In all fairness, it also shows how the best among the American people are honest and tells you the truth about their own country’s barbarity. The West in general and the US/NATO countries, in particular, seem to suffer from a complex systemic disease composed of: 1) obsession with the military, weapons and warfare – or militarism that infects...

Gordon DumoulinTFF Associate May 24, 2022 Introduction Here we go again. On the same day, leading Western mainstream media – such as BBC, Politiken, Dagens Nyheter, Le Monde, etc – 14 media from 11 countries – publish a new accusation against China, ‘Xinjiang Police Files’: Exclusive documents reveal China’s machine of repression against the Uyghurs. They are produced by the extreme right Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation in the United States. It appeared the day after President Biden had stated, in Tokyo, that the US would come to the rescue of Taiwan if China should attack it. And it coincided also with the UN Human Rights High Commissioner, Michelle Bachelet, started her fact-finding mission in Xinjiang. Perhaps it was a coincidence. Perhaps the material was put together and made ready by the foundation so it could be published at the right moment? Clearly, the untold purpose has been to undermine...

A 30 mins panel discussion led by Ms Liu Xin, a very important TV personality known to CGTN’s 150 million viewers because of her program “The Point”. CGTN stands for China Global Television Network – more about it here. And here is its YouTube Channel. The participants in this edition of “The Point” are: Yury Tavrovsky, chairman of Experts Commission of Russian-Chinese Committee for Friendship, Peace and Development Ulrich Brückner, professor, Stanford University in Berlin Michael E. O’Hanlon, senior fellow and director of research in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution Brian Berletic, Geopolitical Analyst, Bangkok And here it is on YouTube. Enjoy the debate! Is this type of reasoning, based on decades of free research and knowledge-building, of merit in a democracy and for the discussion about NATO?If you think so, TFF would be grateful for your support. Thanks!

Jan Oberg May 19, 2022 This short article aims to merely illustrate – not prove – the difference between security political intellectualism and ignorance. It does not focus on peace – theories, ideas, concept or policies – simply because none of the personalities appearing below are in the business of peace. By means of some videos, I aim to illustrate the differences between security political intellectualism and the kind of populist rhetorics that has become so widespread. Weapons have been around for decades but mostly managed by elites who operated within some kind of intellectual framework – agreeing or not agreeing with its characteristics is not the point here. Most people who conducted security politics decades ago were well-educated and experienced compared with most of today’s security political decision-makers. This overall intellectual disarmament coupled to ever-higher levels of military armament and the recent talk about the use of nuclear weapons...

Sunday the 15th, 2022, I was asked to comment from a peace research point of view on Finland and Sweden’s moves to become full members of NATO. I gladly do so since it is a long time since I commented on anything on RT. For those who think that it is surprising or even wrong to speak with Russian media, my media policy can be found here. The denial of access by the EU and others to RT is an indisputable violation of human rights – but most people do not know it. I’m talking about the UN’s International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights Article 19 from 1966. If you want to get around that violation of your rights, download and pay for a proxy server such as PrivateVPN, set it to e.g. Finland and you will be able to access RT. Then you may also read my front...

Jan Oberg 14 maj, 2022 Engelska versionen av denna finns här Detta är vad västvärlden intellektuellt sett – mitt i sin gränslöst självrättfärdiga, militaristiska sinnesstämning – inte förmår att se: Natos expansionspolitik skapade – och är ansvarig för – konflikten. Ryssland skapade – och är ansvarigt för – kriget. Det finns inget våld som inte har sin grund i underliggande konflikter. Konflikt- och fredskunniga människor talar därför om båda. Och om de vill ha fred ökar de inte symptomen – kriget – utan de tar itu med den verkliga orsaken, konflikten, och ber de stridande parterna att berätta vad de fruktar och vad de vill och tar sig sedan steg för steg vidare mot en hållbar lösning. Men varken mainstream media eller politiker har civilkurage nog att ta itu med konflikten. Det handlar bara om kriget och bara om Ryssland/Putin som måste straffas, oavsett vilket pris kommande generationer ska betala....

Jan Oberg May 12, 2022 Here’s what the West is intellectually unable – in the midst of its boundlessly self-righteous, militarist mood to see: NATO’s expansion policy created – and is responsible for – the conflict. Russia created – and is responsible for – the war. There exists no violence which is not rooted in underlying conflicts. Conflict and peace literate people, therefore, talk about both. And if they want peace, they do not increase the symptoms – the war – they address the real cause, the conflict and ask the conflicting parties to tell what they fear and what they want and then move, step-by-step towards a sustainable solution. But neither the mainstream media nor politicians have the civil courage to address the conflict. It’s only about the war and only about Russia/Putin who must be punished, no matter the price to be paid by future generations. If we...

Gordon Dumoulin TFF Associate May 11, 2022 There is only one winner… Mind-boggling and horrifying as it is, the US House just passed a USD 40 billion military aid package yesterday to buttress Ukraine. USD 40 billion! Does anyone have an idea what humanity could do with such a huge amount of capital flowing into the Military-Industrial Complex this week? And by the way, $ 40 billion is “just 5%” of the total annual US military budget for 2022, USD 750-800 billion (not including many related budgets). In perspective, – The current $40 billion military aid package would easily erase the $35 billion in debts of the 74 poorest nations of the world. (1) – The EU spent $40 billion (€34 billion) in total on climate change mitigation in 2020. (2) – The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) mentions that it would cost $50 billion to vaccinate the whole world against COVID.(3) – The costs...